US Ceasefire Plan for Gaza is a Deception

The attacks of the Israeli state against the Palestinian people in Gaza continue with full speed and brutality. The massacre, which has almost reached the level of genocide, has been continuing uninterruptedly since October. Gaza has been completely destroyed. According to UN data, the number of people killed is close to 40 thousand, while the number of wounded has reached 90 thousand. It is rumoured that these numbers may be higher as the bodies under the rubble have not yet been recovered. It was announced that at least 13 thousand of those killed were children. Since Israel is also blocking aid convoys, Palestinians living in Gaza are in great misery, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians had to leave everything and migrate. Even the most basic necessities are inaccessible, hospitals are not working, the wounded cannot be treated, children are dying of hunger. More than half of Gaza’s population has taken refuge in a small area, namely the Rafah region, and it is not difficult to imagine how the humanitarian crisis will grow if Israel launches a ground attack on this region, having already bombed tents there and massacred hundreds of people.

While this unlimited brutality continues, the US President Biden, the biggest supporter of the murderous Israeli state, announced a so-called ceasefire plan on 31 May. Following the call of Biden, who announced that this so-called plan was originally proposed by Israel, on 11 June, the UN Security Council announced the approval of the US proposal with the abstention of Russia. The resolution stated that in the first phase, hostage and prisoner exchanges would take place and a short-term ceasefire would be declared, in the second phase, “a permanent cessation of hostilities” and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, and in the third phase, the reconstruction of Gaza would be in question.

While Hamas announced on 13 June that it would agree to the plan if Israel agreed to a complete withdrawal from Gaza, US officials said that Hamas had proposed so many changes, “some of which are unacceptable” (which is not true), that it was “time for Hamas to stop negotiating”. They also stated that Qatar and Egypt would mediate along with the US. While all these statements, announcements, etc. were going on, no official statement was made by Israel regarding the ceasefire plan. On the contrary, Israel continued to bomb Rafah. Even though Israel announced a “tactical pause” decision that will be valid during the day to allow the passage of aid convoys and Netanyahu declared that he dissolved the war cabinet on 17 June, nothing changes on the ground and the attacks continue at full speed.

It is obvious to anyone with a passing knowledge of Israeli-Palestinian history that this so-called ceasefire plan put forward by the US and the UN resolution have no meaning in practice. We all know that no such plan can stop Israel. As a matter of fact, Netanyahu’s last words reveal Israel’s true intentions: “Our goal is to destroy Hamas and we will continue the war until we achieve this.” Israeli officials have already announced that the war will continue until the end of 2024.

This so-called ceasefire plan, like so many others before it, is intended to appease the growing international outcry, to buy time and to cover up the real intentions of the US and Israel in the process of realising their real plans for the region. Biden, who is about to enter the election process, may also be included in this list. Therefore, nothing should be expected from such ceasefire plans. Although the UN and many countries have been telling Israel that it should immediately declare a ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid, Israel has not heeded these feeble warnings, and continues to increase the dose of attacks and plans to expand the war to Lebanon.

Ceasefire plan cannot stop the war in Gaza

Although the UN has declared its approval, it is clear that the main purpose of this ceasefire plan put forward by the US is not to stop the ongoing Israeli attacks and atrocities in Gaza. The articles it contains also make it clear that this is not the intention. For example, in the first phase of the so-called ceasefire plan, mutual hostage exchanges and/or the release of some Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails are mentioned. However, as the Palestinian side rightly points out, Israel imprisons dozens of Palestinians almost every day under various pretexts. The release of, say, a hundred prisoners in recent days will not mean much when thousands of Palestinian political prisoners are considered. In the second phase of the plan, the phrase “a permanent cessation of hostilities” is left particularly vague, and it is clear that what is meant is the dismantling of Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups. In other words, Israel will be able to do whatever it wants under the pretence of “fighting terrorism and protecting itself”, but the Palestinians will not be able to counter it. There is no “mutual enmity”, but a deliberate massacre and decades of persecution by Israel.

Again, in the second stage, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza is mentioned, but the conditions and the manner of this withdrawal are not mentioned at all. When some countries, including Turkey, asked the US to guarantee that Israel would not engage in any further atrocities, the US response was a dry “we promise”. In other words, there is no guarantee given by either the US or Israel. Another issue is the political status of Gaza after the ceasefire. In the bilateral talks, the US has stated that the administration of Gaza will no longer be left to Hamas and will be handed over to Mahmoud Abbas, i.e. Fatah. Whether this will work in practice or whether it will be possible is a separate issue. But the collaborationist Fatah leadership is already committed to this plan. The fact that it has not taken a strong stance against the massacre in Gaza so far can also be attributed to this. Regarding this plan, which was discussed behind closed doors, Hamas proposed the following: there should be neither Hamas nor Fatah in Gaza and a technocratic government should be established, Hamas should be incorporated into the PLO and elections should be held in 1.5 years, and the armed forces resisting in Gaza should join the official army of the Palestinian “state”. It is rumoured that Turkey played a significant role in Hamas’ refusal to say no to the ceasefire plan and put forward these proposals.

Perhaps the only credible part of the plan is the so-called third phase, the reconstruction of Gaza. Many countries, including Turkey, are eager to get a piece of the pie for this part, which they see as highly profitable.

These articles of the so-called ceasefire plan, which seem to have been prepared by the US and Israel, show that there is no goodwill. Turkey and other regional powers, who have taken on the role of mediators, are seeking to increase their own influence. The cornered Hamas is also trying to come up with a plan to save itself from extinction or further neutralisation. Hamas, which emerged in the 1980s with a radical programme and gained considerable power, especially in Gaza, is far from representing the interests of the oppressed Palestinian people. Hamas, which was supported by the anti-Western camp, especially Iran, as opposed to Fatah, which was supported by the Western powers, has ruled Gaza under a one-party regime for years and has harmed the Palestinian cause. It should not be forgotten that, like Fatah, it is also a bourgeois movement, and both bourgeois forces have no interest in defending the interests of Palestinian labourers. Therefore, even if the articles proposed by Hamas are added to the so-called ceasefire plan, it is impossible to talk about a solution in favour of the Palestinian people or an end to the war and massacres. Under the current circumstances, the US-Israel duo should not be expected to accept Hamas’ proposals. In a sense, all parties are trying to create the perception that the ceasefire plan “did not materialise because the other side put stones in the way”. Meanwhile, Israel continues to implement its own plans as usual.

On the other hand, although there is not yet a real ceasefire, the question of what will happen in Gaza “after the war” is being discussed. Western countries supporting Israel are advocating that after the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza and before the reconstruction of Gaza, a multinational force should take charge there and a local administration, in which Hamas does not take part, should take over. They propose that this multinational force should include UN troops as well as troops from Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states. Some Western powers and many other countries, on the other hand, state that for this to be possible, the “two-state solution” plan must first be recognised and implemented. Turkey is one of these countries. Turkey is keen to play a role in Gaza and in the imperialist solution of the Palestinian question, hoping to increase its prestige in the region. The West, on the other hand, intends to make use of Turkey in the liquidation or taming of Hamas.

Although Israel has not made any official statement on the so-called ceasefire plan, there have been various statements from within Israel on both the ceasefire plan and the “aftermath of the war”. Most of these statements come from the fascist and right-wing parties that have given ministers to the war cabinet and support Netanyahu. These fascist and reactionary parties want Netanyahu to be more brutal towards the Palestinians and Hamas, and not to bow to pressure from the West and international public opinion. Already two of the cabinet ministers have announced that they will resign from the cabinet if Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire plan. On 17 June, Netanyahu announced that he was dissolving the six-member war cabinet he formed after the Hamas attack, but that he would continue to hold consultative meetings with some members of the cabinet and that his work in Gaza was not yet finished.

Indeed, Netanyahu’s dissolution of the war cabinet did not prevent Israel from continuing its offensive in Gaza. Various senior officials commanding the army have also stated that nothing has changed on the ground and that the operations are not affected by political developments. Israel’s “tactical pause” decision should also be viewed in this context. In the face of the so-called ceasefire plan of the US and the UN and the pressure of the international public opinion, Israel, which wants to at least appear to be doing something and wants Hamas to be seen as the main obstacle to peace, is trying to calm the situation and gain time with this “tactical pause” decision. However, it is clear that this “tactical pause” will have no result other than allowing the passage of UN aid convoys to a limited extent. The massacre in Gaza continues.

The massacre in Gaza is part of the imperialist war

As we have repeatedly emphasised in our previous articles on the Palestinian question, today’s war in Gaza is a part of the global imperialist struggle and every move must be considered in this context. The Middle East has a special importance for the USA. The strategic goal of the US, which wants to re-strengthen its weakening influence in the Middle East, is to have pro-US-Western regimes in power in the region. In this context, Iran is the main priority of the USA. Because the anti-American mullah regime in power, with the forces loyal to it or supported by it, defies the US-Israel and acts in accordance with the interests of the Russia-China camp. Neither the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq nor the imperialist confrontation in Syria was enough. The presence of traditionally pro-Western countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia was not enough to prevent the growing Iran-Russia-China influence in the region. Moreover, the moves made by Russia and China in the process and the weakening of the US global hegemony paved the way for the aforementioned allies to act against the US plans when necessary.

In this context, the overthrow of the mullah regime in Iran and/or the breaking of Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza are of utmost importance for the US to realise its plans for the region. This means bringing Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian forces in Syria, Iraq and Yemen to their knees.

As such, it has become more essential to strengthen the existence of Israel, which is the most reliable and solid outpost of the USA (and the West) in the region, and, in some way, to solve (!) the Palestinian question, which is seen as an obstacle to the consolidation of Israel’s position and which has the quality of being able to disrupt its relations with other allied Arab countries (Egypt, Jordan, Gulf countries). What this way is under the conditions of the ongoing Third World War, the crisis of global hegemony and the historical system crisis is evident from the massacre committed by Israel in Gaza. Israel, backed by the US and many European states, wants to get rid of this problem by destroying and expelling the Palestinian people and making the Palestinian resistance forces unable to raise their heads again.

Having already brought the West Bank to where it wants it to be thanks to the collaborationist Fatah leadership, Israel is doing everything it can to bring Gaza to a similar status to that of the West Bank and to either destroy Hamas or tame it like Fatah. This is because Hamas can be supported and manipulated by Iran (and in the background by Russia and China), and because other Palestinian resistance forces can survive in Gaza under Hamas rule. This is why the Gaza/Hamas conflict must be resolved at all costs, both in terms of Israel’s plans and those of the United States, of which it is a part.

However, the US-Israeli duo, which thinks that the Gaza-Hamas problem cannot be “solved” only there and whose concern is not limited to Gaza-Hamas, is intensively preparing to extend the war to Lebanon, i.e. to Hezbollah. To this end, the USA and Israel are on the one hand provoking Hezbollah to war and on the other hand intimidating Iran in every way to prevent it from interfering. This is why Israel keeps attacking Iranian bases in Syria and Hezbollah bases in Lebanon. It seems that the Gulf countries also support the plan to break Hezbollah’s power. However, the outbreak of such a war could mean a terrible flare-up of war in the whole Middle East. For Iran, an Israeli attack on Lebanon-Hezbollah would increase the risk of an Iran-Israel war. For the broad front (EU, USA, Israel, Gulf States, Jordan, Egypt, etc.) that wants the overthrow of the Mullah regime in Iran, it is desirable that Iran be dragged into a war that it cannot handle. In short, it is possible that the imperialist war that is taking place in the Middle East could suddenly spread on a much wider and bloody scale.

At this point it should be stressed that no one should be deceived by the fact that from time to time the USA speaks from above as if it were outside the process and not the main party responsible for everything, trying to mediate and cool down the flames of war. The USA is not interested in preventing the war from escalating, but in eliminating the anti-American-Western and pro-Russian-Chinese forces in the Middle East by any means and at any cost. The fact that the tempo of the Third World War, which takes different forms from the previous world wars and is prolonged due to the inability of the great powers to defeat each other, slows down from time to time, that the parties prepare for the next attack or move, that new fronts are opened before a front is closed, and that diplomacy comes into play in between, should not confuse the minds. In our world and in the Middle East, which suffers from decaying capitalism, we are talking about a bloody period of war that will last for many years.

The situation of the US’s global rivals, Russia and China, is no different. They too are not interested in peace, but rather in pushing back the US, whose hegemony has been shaken, and establishing their own influence in the spaces that have been vacated. That is why it is impossible to exclude Russia and China when talking about the war in the Middle East and the slaughter in Gaza. The main allies of the Russia-China duo in the Middle East are Iran and the forces associated with it. The fact that Hamas is one of these forces should not be forgotten. This should also be taken into account when interpreting the Hamas attack on Israel last October. In particular, Russia, which has taken its place directly on the battlefield through Syria, does not hesitate to take steps to escalate the war if necessary. Therefore, it must be clearly stated that neither the US nor the Russia-China camp has any intention of ensuring peace in the Middle East or the liberation of the Palestinian people. The concept of “controlled tension” used from time to time by some bourgeois commentators or journalists, or the statements that the big powers want to reduce the tension of the war in the Middle East, do not correspond to the truth, at least “for the time being”. These big imperialist powers are the ones who started and continue the war, i.e. they are the real parties to the war. Their intention is not to reduce the tension but to achieve their aims at any cost. If we remember how many countries the war has spread to and how many millions of people have been mercilessly killed in the process that started with the invasion of Afghanistan, the issue will be better understood.

In conclusion, it is clear that the so-called US-UN ceasefire plan, Israel’s “tactical pause” and closed-door negotiations will not stop the carnage in Gaza, which has almost reached the level of genocide. This theatre and hypocritical diplomacy, staged while the Palestinian people in Gaza continue to die and writhe in the grip of misery, shows once again that it is neither Fatah, nor Hamas, nor the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey or any other power that will ensure the liberation of the Palestinian people. The liberation of the Palestinian people depends on stopping the ongoing bloody imperialist war. The mass protests organised by the workers, labourers and youth in many countries, especially in the USA and Britain, show the way forward. The overthrow of the capitalist-imperialist system, which is in a historical crisis, is the only way both to end the ongoing imperialist war and to save humanity and the world from destruction.